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One dollar now buys $699 of protection

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Sep 11, 2026

One dollar now buys $699 of protection

In 2023 it bought $430. The failures it insures against are at a 13-year high.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
Your mortgage now depends on your neighbours

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Sep 10, 2026

Your mortgage now depends on your neighbours

On August 3 a rule changed, and the building started getting underwritten instead of the buyer.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
Deposits grew. The insured kind shrank

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Sep 9, 2026

Deposits grew. The insured kind shrank

Then it lost 30% of its funding in ten days, and got an unlimited guarantee anyway.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
The buyer and the seller are the same firm

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Sep 8, 2026

The buyer and the seller are the same firm

Plus Dutch pensions leaving the long end, new jets stripped for their engines, and packers losing $250 a head.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
They expected 17,000. They got 2.6 million.

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Sep 5, 2026

They expected 17,000. They got 2.6 million.

Federal officials projected 17,000 arbitration cases a year. Providers filed 2.6 million.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
Rotterdam is outbidding Iowa for the same gallon

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Sep 4, 2026

Rotterdam is outbidding Iowa for the same gallon

Diesel costs 37% more than gasoline. A year ago the gap was 56 cents.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
The credit grade you're not allowed to read

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Sep 3, 2026

The credit grade you're not allowed to read

$481 billion of bonds graded in private letters nobody outside the deal will ever see.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
The lender that never asked what you earned

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Sep 2, 2026

The lender that never asked what you earned

Twenty years of unpriced credit ended on July 1. What's arriving instead has a credit-score floor of 670.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
I own gold

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Sep 1, 2026

I own gold

A few coins in a cupboard. In India, that chain is a credit line, and the whole book just doubled.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
My insurance company made a bet I never agreed to

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Aug 30, 2026

My insurance company made a bet I never agreed to

Taiwan's life insurers hold $700 billion abroad. Under half of it is protected now.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
I looked up who owns my vet

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Aug 29, 2026

I looked up who owns my vet

A family name on the sign, a private credit fund on the loan documents

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
BBB to CCC+ in twenty-four months

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Aug 28, 2026

BBB to CCC+ in twenty-four months

A state agency lent its tax exemption to a train, and owes nothing if it fails

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
You've seen the ad

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Aug 27, 2026

You've seen the ad

Four years after Congress opened the door, under 1% of the file has moved.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
I had $2,000 for the water heater. Plenty don't.

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Aug 25, 2026

I had $2,000 for the water heater. Plenty don't.

$50,000 today. $76,491 in three years, even after a 30% drop.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
30 cents per dollar reserved. Bonds sold anyway.

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Aug 21, 2026

30 cents per dollar reserved. Bonds sold anyway.

Hilton Grand Vacations holds $3.97 billion in loans it wrote itself. It expects to lose a third.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
The pool is clean because someone cleans it

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Aug 19, 2026

The pool is clean because someone cleans it

When a loan inside the bond goes bad, the seller buys it back at a hundred cents.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
The collateral is a store on a corner

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Aug 18, 2026

The collateral is a store on a corner

$5.7 billion of debt against a chain that has closed 8,345 restaurants.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
Defaults at a 13-year high, no recession

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Aug 14, 2026

Defaults at a 13-year high, no recession

Small business bankruptcy filings rose 50%. Big-bank credit data says everything is fine.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
Two readings on the same economy

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Aug 12, 2026

Two readings on the same economy

The banks say 1.34%. The government's own small-business book says 4.8%. Both are right.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
The installer is gone. The loan is not.

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Aug 11, 2026

The installer is gone. The loan is not.

Prime borrowers are defaulting on their panels five times faster than on their cars.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
Somebody pays your mortgage when you don't

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Aug 7, 2026

Somebody pays your mortgage when you don't

It isn't the government and it isn't a bank anymore — plus Taiwan, student loans, value vs growth.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
Texas changed one word and cut $2.4 billion from its storm fund

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Aug 5, 2026

Texas changed one word and cut $2.4 billion from its storm fund

The law used to require enough money for a one-in-a-hundred-year hurricane. In June it became one in fifty. Rates were frozen in exchange. The hurricanes weren't consulted.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
Payday came. A third of it was from the government.

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Aug 4, 2026

Payday came. A third of it was from the government.

That's the American farm sector this year — alongside record debt, a record interest bill, and a lender whose bad loans have tripled.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
Harvard tried to sell. The best bid was 60 cents.

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Jul 31, 2026

Harvard tried to sell. The best bid was 60 cents.

So the richest school on earth borrowed $2.5 billion instead. Its private equity portfolio fell 31.6% over the following year.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
Your bank stopped lending to businesses. It lends to lenders now.

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Jul 29, 2026

Your bank stopped lending to businesses. It lends to lenders now.

One dollar in every ten American banks lend now goes to another lender. Fifteen years ago it was less than one in a hundred.

The Market Anomaly
The Market Anomaly
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Stop reading the news a day too late.

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